The future is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty encompasses uncertain future events or occurrences at both the macro- and micro-levels. Uncertain future events or occurrences may include anything in the future, including outcomes, measurements, processes, developments, discoveries and, of course, events or occurrences. Further, the uncertainty is indiscriminate to the time frame for which it operates, for both near and future events or occurrences may have a degree of unpredictability. For instance, it is uncertain whether inflation will rise, fall, or stay the same in the coming months. It is also uncertain whether, and to what degree, the price of a family home will increase, decrease, or stay the same over a given time period. And, it is uncertain whether a single child will marry before a certain age or remain a dependent until a certain age. Indeed, the uncertainty encompasses all perspective levels, from broad to narrow, for all future time periods, for all tangible and intangible subject matter. For many, this uncertainty brings excitement; however, the uncertainty also presents the risk that certain events or occurrences do not occur as anticipated, leading in some instances to financial losses or disappointment. In these instances, it would be desirable to predict, manage, guarantee, assure, or speculate in risks for future uncertain events or occurrences.
First, predicting uncertain future events or occurrences would be desirable for planning and making more informed or less risky decisions. For instance, if inflation is predicted to rise, it may be prudent to prepare for interest rate increases by minimizing mortgage payments or paying off debt. Also, if the real estate prices in a particular neighborhood are predicted to increase, it may be desirable to make real estate purchases before this anticipated increase. Further, if a child is predicted to marry, it may be wise to plan for wedding expenses or even the possibility of his/her being “jilted” and losing a banquet hall or reception deposit. Certainly, few would argue that accurate predictions of uncertain future events or occurrences are not valuable. Yet, achieving accurate predictions has been elusive in surveys, questionnaires, censuses, evaluations, assessments, or any other forecasts. Predictions often have error margins due to lack of motivation, lack of a tangible incentive, or inherent prejudice in the phrasing of questions. Further, pollees are sometimes not capable of giving informed opinions, completely answering the poll, satisfying the poller, thereby diminishing the accuracy of the poll itself. Similarly, expert opinions are limited in that they constitute, at most, only a few viewpoints, are sometimes obsolete, are founded on past rather than future performance, and are not easily verifiable. Thus, more accurate predictions of uncertain future events or occurrences would be desirable.
Next, managing the risks in uncertain future events or occurrences would be desirable for hedging against incorrect predictions, biases, or assumptions about the future. For instance, as discussed above, it would be beneficial to hedge against the risk of incorrectly converting variable rate loans to fixed rate loans under an assumption that interest rates were going to rise rather than fall. Similarly, as discussed above, it would be desirable to hedge against the risk of incorrectly purchasing a house in a particular neighborhood under the assumption that housing prices in that particular neighborhood would increase. Further, it would be beneficial to hedge against the risk of incorrectly investing in a particular ingredient for a drug under the assumption that the drug would ultimately gain FDA approval or achieve market success. Various institutions have pre-determined areas for risk management and have marketed and/or packaged these pre-determined products. However, pre-determined approaches do not provide risk management abilities for independently determinable uncertain future events or occurrences. For instance, there is no independently determinable risk-management system for whether a particular patent will be valuable, whether it will issue within a given time frame, or whether particular claims within the patent will be allowed by an examiner. Similarly, there is no independently determinable risk-management system for whether tomorrow will bring sunshine for a wedding or whether a particular product within a company will meet or surpass revenue forecasts. Further, there is no independently determinable risk-management system for whether a medical school graduate will be “matched” with a particular residency training program or remain jobless and still be responsible for medical school tuition debt. Without an independently determinable risk-management system an entity is unable to address particularly and precisely risks in uncertain future events or occurrences that are not pre-determined. Accordingly, an independently determinable risk-management system for any uncertain future event or occurrence would be desirable.
Also, as a complement to managing the risks of inherently uncertain future events or occurrences, it would be desirable to have an organized system for risk-bearing, speculative, profit-oriented, or otherwise motivated third parties to assume certain particular and precise risks in uncertain future events or occurrences from anyone, anywhere, for anything. For instance, it would be beneficial to provide an ability for one individual or entity to assume the risk of any independently determinable uncertain future event or occurrence, such as inflation changes, real estate market price changes, a marital status change, or adverse weather for a particular day and a precise location from another particular individual, small business, or other entity located anywhere in the world. Risk transfer systems to date are pre-determined, whereby a centralized person or organization pre-determines and/or packages the risks that may be transferred, which indirectly mandates the risk burden for all non-addressed uncertain future events or occurrences. Thus, it would be desirable to facilitate the transfer of any independently determinable uncertain future event or occurrence risk among any number of persons, anywhere, for anything.
What is needed then are systems and methods for providing a personalized exchange market, and more specifically, to systems and methods for establishing personalized pledge agreements for uncertain future events or occurrences.